Syrian voices: Where next for European policy?
The ongoing crisis in Idlib has once again exposed European weakness in trying to shape developments in Syria. While many European leaders remain committed to a meaningful political process in Syria – and believe that economic support and political legitimisation provides leverage to create a positive outcome – they are failing to exert meaningful influence on developments in the country.
The European Council on Foreign Relations gathered a group of Syrian voices from both within and outside the country to reflect on how European policy might become more impactful. This collection complements an ongoing series of intra-Syria dialogues convened by ECFR to explore the future of the country and European policy on the ongoing crisis.
Assaad Al-Achi, Baytna Syria, Turkey
The EU’s official line continues to be that it will only provide reconstruction assistance to Syria once “a comprehensive, genuine and inclusive political transition is firmly under way”. The EU sees political conditionality and reconstruction as sources of leverage that it can use to effect political change. But is this position still tenable?
By February 2020, the Syrian regime seemed to be on its way to re-establishing control over much of Idlib. When this battle is over, the Syrian authorities will have likely regained more than 80 percent of Syrian territory. What is left will be directly managed either by Turkey or by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with support from the US. The Syrian authorities, via Ali Mamlouk, head of the Syrian security agencies, have also started direct negotiations with Turkey and the SDF. It is clear that the regime is on its way to reaffirming its presence across the entire country, either via military means or via negotiations.
The political process in Geneva is frail, at best. It regained some life with the launch of the Constitutional Committee in October 2019. However, early signs of positive engagement quickly faltered. Does the formation of the Constitutional Committee mean that an inclusive political process is firmly under way? This is what Russia has hoped for – even if it did not intend for the process to lead to a political transition – and why it was pushing so hard for its creation. Moscow essentially wants the EU to pay for the reconstruction of what Russian forces and the Syrian regime have destroyed. As such, Russia saw the committee as the gateway to European support.
Against this military and political backdrop, the EU is currently on a dangerous path – one that will lead it to failure and, perhaps, into a Russian trap. A more sustainable approach that still seeks to make a positive difference would anchor conditionality in key human rights principles rather than easy-to-manipulate political statements. Given that all Syrians who have suffered deeply throughout the conflict have a right to reconstruction funding, Europeans need to think about how they can proceed in supporting these needs without compromising on their core principles. Europe should not use reconstruction money to reward or punish one party over another. It should be balanced, needs-based, and driven by local priorities. The EU should use reconstruction funding to support victims by protecting their civic, political, land, and property rights. To prevent those who have violated human rights from exploiting reconstruction contracts, the EU should put in place a strict monitoring and accountability mechanism. The bloc needs to couple this with an effective targeted sanctions policy that deters, and provides accountability for, further such violations.
Europeans should also increasingly focus on the essential task of repairing Syria’s social fabric. They must prioritise measures that sustain Syrian civil society structures through social cohesion, local conflict resolution, and peacebuilding initiatives. Without a vibrant, independent, and empowered civil society, it will be very hard to repair the social fabric.
Originally published on https://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_syrian_voices_where_next_for_european_policy/
